Conspiracy theory: Why AAP is a creation of the BJP/RSS

Conspiracy theory: Why AAP is a creation of the BJP/RSS

At the outset, it does appear that AAP and Arvind Kejriwal are against both BJP and the Congress. Who can forget AK’s vitriolic moments castigating both BJP and Congress leaders, listing corrupt politicians from both parties and announcing Swiss bank accounts of multiple netas. Since, most of the corrupt netas were from the Congress, it was clear that AAP was a BJP/RSS creation. But to rip the suspicion in the bud, Kejriwal contested against Modi in the 2014 elections. He must fully be aware nobody had the wherewithal to defeat Modi, that too from Banaras, a traditional BJP seat.

But, why did Kejriwal contest against Modi of all people? Specially, since his purported fight was against corruption? Surely, Modi is not corrupt by any means. The conspiracy theory is that by contesting against Modi, Ak dispelled the remotest possibilities that he was a BJP sympathizer. Any perceived sympathies were immediately killed with the announcement.

Circa 2015. Delhi elections. It was a triangular contest between AAP, BJP and Congress (in that order). By limiting himself and bringing in a Kiran Bedi, the BJP ensured, AAP got the majority votes. And what a majority it was! 67 out of 70! In theory, it did hurt the BJP. But, who was worst affected? The Congress. It drew a big zero.

Delhi was a state where the Congress was in power for 15 years in a row, and overnight became reduced to zilch.  

We have seen corporates do it – cannibalization is a very common strategy adopted to break a competitor’s market share. And that is exactly what the BJP/RSS are doing with AAP and the Congress. By creating a party that usurped the SAME EXACT identity of the Congress, the BJP/RSS have ensured the Congress sails smoothly towards becoming a non-entity in Indian politics. Who can forget the famous Congress slogan – “Congress ka haath, Aam Admi ke saath”. Now the Aam Aadmi no longer wants to be associated with the Congress – it is either the BJP or the AAP. AAP has the new long term patent for “aam aadmi” now.  

Anyone following AAP’s growth will see it is growing in states where the Congress had been traditionally strong – the next battleground is in Punjab, where the Congress fancies its chance. A strong AAP will reduce it to a BJP-AAP war, with one of them winning and the Congress slipping out of existence.    

  

AAP is growing, not at the cost of BJP, but rather at the cost pf Congress. And with Rahul Gandhi at the helm of affairs in the Congress, the timing couldn’t be any better.

Is it going to hurt Modi? – not at all. Modi will retire in another 10-15 years, which is roughly the time, it will take AAP to become the next major party and for the Congress to be reduced to a regional party or a non-entity.

It remains to be seen how this strategy pans out and if the BJP/RSS plans of a ‘Congress mukt” Bharat will come true.         

A 5-step Roadmap for AAP

A 5-step Roadmap for AAP

As infighting and resignations in AAP become an everyday affair, it is easy to write them off. Is AAP a dead party now or is it just in a state of turmoil with complete decimation just days/months away or could things improve in the coming days? Truly speaking AAP could go either way, depending on the strategy it decides to execute. AAP has already made a very strategic mistake of resigning in Delhi. There is no way, it can go wrong now, if the intent is really to make it a party par excellence.

The reality is that opportunity couldn’t have been any better for AAP. With the Congress badly bruised and showing no signs of rejection of dynasty politics, AAP can position itself to become the main opposition in 2019 elections and potential power in 2024.

Here is a 5-step roadmap for AAP’s revival:

          1.  Consolidate instead of expand: First and foremost, AAP needs to consolidate the support base it has, as opposed to expanding and hunting for air. Arvind and AAP leadership must make the message loud and clear that the buck stops with stalwarts like Yogendra Yadav, Gopinath, Shazia and other such leaders. By resigning from their positions in AAP, these leaders are passing the buck, which is clearly not an option. Arvind’s forte is communication and he must be very articulate about conveying the message to the public and to the stakeholders. If Shazia feels something is wrong, it is her responsibility to set things straight. Personality cuts and leadership issues are the worst enemies for a party like AAP.   

      2. Get election ready in Delhi and Maharashtra: AAP is cease its focus on the entire nation. I had previously written about AAP’s incorrect approach to political change management and want to re-emphasize the point again. Large scale transformation must always be a step by step process. Big Bangs are very hard to manage and very expensive. AAP doesn’t hav the luxury of funding. With constraint resources, AAP is better off in grabbing the low hanging fruits and making an impact. AAP has done well in Delhi and was briefly in power for 49 days. Arvind must position himself as the CM candidate for AAP and get battle ready. Similarly, stalwarts like Yogendra Yadav (Haryana), Shazia (Delhi), Vishwas (UP), Dalmia (Maharashtra) and others must be given charges of states with the very specific asks to build AAP strength at the mohalla level.   

     

     3. Avoid negative references to Narendra Modi for at least a year: AK must have realized that Narendra Modi is the most popular leader in India now and that he himself paid for his negative references to Modi. Modi has a great connect with the masses and enjoys the administrative and political skills that none in AAP can match. It is good to be aggressive, but being over-aggressive has have massive downsides. If Namo does something seriously wrong, they must highlight it. But please, any other negative references like crony capitalism, 2002, etc. are obsolete now and chances are they will be punished again. Best avoided. Even in Delhi, people wanted AK as CM and NM as PM.  

       

     4. Build base in UP, Punjab, Telangana, West Bengal and Karnataka: There is no second party in UP. The BJP is the number one. AAP has an opportunity to build itself as the number 2 in UP. Telangana is a new state and it is very likely that people’s expectations will not be met by the new CM. That presents an opportunity for AAP. West Bengal, the Mamta Bannerjee govt is likely to be on a downslide with a resurgent BJP set to grab eyeballs. AAP can begin by positioning itself as the 3rd player and gradually move up. Congress, CPM will likely be fringe players.

       

      5. Prepare for 2024 elections on the basis of performances of AAP –led state: 4 (actual seats won by AAP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections) is significantly less than 100 (AAP’s forecasts). AAP must fight to form at least 3 to 5 state governments in the next 5 years. Performance speaks as NaMo has proved. Their governments must make an impact on aam aadmi’s life if elected in the states. AAP will be realistic to assume that 2019 elections will propel them towards higher seats and possibly the second largest party. 2024 elections are more likely to be “ab kee baar, AAP sarkar”. Modi is thirsty and will not leave grounds for non-BJP govt in 2014. AAP will do well to keep focusing resources on state elections till 2019 and fight parliamentary seats in limited number of seats, using win-ability as a criteria.

     

      The future could be AAP’s if it doesn’t repeat its Delhi mistake. The BJP could be the new Congress and AAP could be the new BJP in the next 10 years.        

Why Arvind Kejriwal is no less a winner than Modi

Why Arvind Kejriwal is no less a winner than Modi

Elections are over. Results are out. It is Narendra Modi all the way! Absolute majority for a single party and 300+ seats for a pre-poll alliance hasn’t happened in the last 30 years. And one man takes the honors – a very well deserved too! I have previously mentioned that Modi’s journey is something to celebrate, not criticize.

There are two very interesting observations about this election season – one, the key theme in most voter’s mind was corruption and the need for development, and two, the time of the ordinary Indian, the aam aadmi has come and the dynasts are welcome to pack their bag and leave.  

How did this transition happen? How did people in India leave aside their feudal mentality, their caste associations, last minute dole-outs and vote for the commoner, the “gareeb maa ka laal”? How is it that caste and religion equations were not priority and the corrupt ways of the dynasts failed miserably to draw people to them favorably?

Clearly, this transition has not happened overnight? While Modi was the messiah that people saw who could resolve their problems and root out corruption, Arvind Kejriwal’s contribution to educating the common man and making them aware of the reality, was no less.

Many a time, we are unable to articulate the problem and the solution seems so far away. Kejriwal was the man who gave a voice to the common man, who articulated the problem and forced the issue of rampant corruption and linked it to governance. He didn’t offer solutions. But by forcing the right issues, the platform was relatively easy for Modi to project himself as the ultimate problem solver.

People may demean Keriwal, but remember, he has always maintained he is not in politics to enjoy power. His goal is to change the politics of the country. His oft-repeated statements forced people to think about real issues and vote for someone who they feel can solve their problems.

“Don’t vote for us. If you feel the Congress or the BJP or the BSP can solve your problems, go ahead and vote for them”. And that is exactly what people did in these elections. The problem was nicely laid out for the common man. And the solution was there, in the form of Modi.

With a young electorate, it is expected to remain so. Future elections will be less about caste or dole-outs. But they will be about real issues. Kejriwal may himself remain out of the Parliament, but at least, he has succeeded in influencing the way people vote.

Thanks Mr. Kejriwal! The country needs more people like you who will continue helping ordinary voters frame the right question. Once the questions are known, the solution will emerge too.

PS: Read also my blog on AAP and AK’s (incorrect) approach here:    

Arvind Kejriwal's AAProach to Political Change Mgmt

Arvind Kejriwal's AAProach to Political Change Mgmt 

Off late there have been innumerable articles written on Arvind Kejriwal and his so-called “bhagoda” act. The fact that his government at New Delhi chose to resign in just 49 days has drawn thousands of hours of TV discussions, criticisms or support.

This has caused the other political parties and the aam aadmi in general to cast aspersions on his integrity, his honesty and the very purpose of AAP. Every word that he says is now analyzed and scrutinized for signs of irrationality and immaturity.

In my opinion, it will be wrong to suspect his intention. However, he is indeed a man in rush. So much so, that he has forgotten the basics of political change management. When you are attempting large scale transformation, you have to go slow, be careful with the speed of change. The speed of change should be inversely proportional to the size of the group impacted by the change. A country as vast and diverse as India cannot be transformed overnight, as Kejriwal thought. A change in our culture of dynasty worship, corruption and chalta hai attitude doesn't happen in a few months. These are changes that would take at least a generation.

A better AAProach for political change management would have been to focus on Delhi in the immediate short term. And incrementally focus on 2 to 3 states that are awaiting elections this year or next. Getting into the national fray could have waited till 2019.

With the right intentions, AAP could have proved itself in a span of 3-5 years. People could have seen the difference they create in each state, reduction in corruption and some very visible development. Such positive actions would have helped in 2019 national elections.

AK wants to be the agent of change and doesn’t aspire to be PM, but in this case, his agility is going to kill the momentum.  

After all Rome was not built in a day.

Celebrate Modi, don’t just criticize him

Celebrate Modi, don’t just criticize him

Before you jump to conclusions, this blog is not a random praise of Narendra Modi. Neither does this extol you to vote blindly for him and his party.

Rags to riches story don’t happen every day. Agreed, Modi’s story is not a “rags to riches” story. His is a “plead to power” story. From pleading with his customers to buy tea to a man in power, and possibly set to become the PM of the country, Modi has traversed a long journey.  The road from plead to power is even more challenging, more difficult and crooked. You can become rich on your merits, but in a democracy you get to power by convincing others of your merits and establishing the trust and confidence of your supporters. Or, if you are a dynast, then, by being born in a particular family. Clearly, Modi belongs to the former category – none of his family members have ever been associated with politics.

Getting to power is like a race. Unfortunately, in this race, everyone doesn’t start from the very beginning. If you have strong political affiliations, you are planted near the end or at the end. But if you have to start from the very beginning with none to watch out for you, we have to credit the contender for their perseverance, hard work, dedication and laser- focus on the end goal.

In this race, all the contenders carry a bag-back which is used to gather experience on the way. The contenders planted near the end goal, hardly have time or ability to capture enough. But those who started from the beginning gather immense experience and learning and lessons learnt on the way. It makes them more wholesome in their abilities. The Modi of 2002 is different from the Modi of 2014. In 2012, we had a Modi with zero experience as an administrator. Come 2014 and we have an administrator with over 12 years of experience of running a government. Good experience can and should never be discounted. The Akhilesh Yadav of 2025 will be very different (read experienced) from the man we see today.

The race will end soon and winners and losers will be known to all. The winner will get all the credit; however, equal credit must also be given to organizers of the race. In this context, the democratic framework and citizens of India, who I believe are the biggest winners. While the BJP and Modi may or may not form the next government, it is a tremendous win for the country that a poor chai-walla Narendra today dreams to lead the country. Not only has he done something right to reach this position, but our fathers did us a great service to establish a framework where at least everyone can dream to race!

We can always find a reason to criticize the man, but be positive and celebrate the dreams of the man.