A 5-step Roadmap for AAP

A 5-step Roadmap for AAP

As infighting and resignations in AAP become an everyday affair, it is easy to write them off. Is AAP a dead party now or is it just in a state of turmoil with complete decimation just days/months away or could things improve in the coming days? Truly speaking AAP could go either way, depending on the strategy it decides to execute. AAP has already made a very strategic mistake of resigning in Delhi. There is no way, it can go wrong now, if the intent is really to make it a party par excellence.

The reality is that opportunity couldn’t have been any better for AAP. With the Congress badly bruised and showing no signs of rejection of dynasty politics, AAP can position itself to become the main opposition in 2019 elections and potential power in 2024.

Here is a 5-step roadmap for AAP’s revival:

          1.  Consolidate instead of expand: First and foremost, AAP needs to consolidate the support base it has, as opposed to expanding and hunting for air. Arvind and AAP leadership must make the message loud and clear that the buck stops with stalwarts like Yogendra Yadav, Gopinath, Shazia and other such leaders. By resigning from their positions in AAP, these leaders are passing the buck, which is clearly not an option. Arvind’s forte is communication and he must be very articulate about conveying the message to the public and to the stakeholders. If Shazia feels something is wrong, it is her responsibility to set things straight. Personality cuts and leadership issues are the worst enemies for a party like AAP.   

      2. Get election ready in Delhi and Maharashtra: AAP is cease its focus on the entire nation. I had previously written about AAP’s incorrect approach to political change management and want to re-emphasize the point again. Large scale transformation must always be a step by step process. Big Bangs are very hard to manage and very expensive. AAP doesn’t hav the luxury of funding. With constraint resources, AAP is better off in grabbing the low hanging fruits and making an impact. AAP has done well in Delhi and was briefly in power for 49 days. Arvind must position himself as the CM candidate for AAP and get battle ready. Similarly, stalwarts like Yogendra Yadav (Haryana), Shazia (Delhi), Vishwas (UP), Dalmia (Maharashtra) and others must be given charges of states with the very specific asks to build AAP strength at the mohalla level.   

     

     3. Avoid negative references to Narendra Modi for at least a year: AK must have realized that Narendra Modi is the most popular leader in India now and that he himself paid for his negative references to Modi. Modi has a great connect with the masses and enjoys the administrative and political skills that none in AAP can match. It is good to be aggressive, but being over-aggressive has have massive downsides. If Namo does something seriously wrong, they must highlight it. But please, any other negative references like crony capitalism, 2002, etc. are obsolete now and chances are they will be punished again. Best avoided. Even in Delhi, people wanted AK as CM and NM as PM.  

       

     4. Build base in UP, Punjab, Telangana, West Bengal and Karnataka: There is no second party in UP. The BJP is the number one. AAP has an opportunity to build itself as the number 2 in UP. Telangana is a new state and it is very likely that people’s expectations will not be met by the new CM. That presents an opportunity for AAP. West Bengal, the Mamta Bannerjee govt is likely to be on a downslide with a resurgent BJP set to grab eyeballs. AAP can begin by positioning itself as the 3rd player and gradually move up. Congress, CPM will likely be fringe players.

       

      5. Prepare for 2024 elections on the basis of performances of AAP –led state: 4 (actual seats won by AAP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections) is significantly less than 100 (AAP’s forecasts). AAP must fight to form at least 3 to 5 state governments in the next 5 years. Performance speaks as NaMo has proved. Their governments must make an impact on aam aadmi’s life if elected in the states. AAP will be realistic to assume that 2019 elections will propel them towards higher seats and possibly the second largest party. 2024 elections are more likely to be “ab kee baar, AAP sarkar”. Modi is thirsty and will not leave grounds for non-BJP govt in 2014. AAP will do well to keep focusing resources on state elections till 2019 and fight parliamentary seats in limited number of seats, using win-ability as a criteria.

     

      The future could be AAP’s if it doesn’t repeat its Delhi mistake. The BJP could be the new Congress and AAP could be the new BJP in the next 10 years.